TCU game will likely determine Utes' seed in tourney

The outcome of tonight’s game against TCU will likely determine whether Utah plays in the 4th vs. 5th place game in two weeks at the Mountain West Conference tournament or the 3rd vs. 6th game.
The Utes are clinging to a half game lead over Air Force and a one-game lead over TCU. A loss will put them in a tie with the idle Falcons and the Horned Frogs at 6-7.
After tonight, the Utes have road games at Wyoming Saturday and UNLV the following Saturday. The only likely victory for Utah is next Tuesday at home against winless Colorado Stte.
Air Force has two home games and could get to 8-8, while TCU has an uphill climb with two road games and a season-ending home game against league-leading BYU.
By getting into the 4-5 game, the Utes not only avoid another first-round matchup with UNLV, but they would get to play an early game at 2:30 p.m., rather than 8:30 p.m. Coach Jim Boylen much prefers the earlier games as do the players.
So what must the Utes do to come away with a victory?
I’ll give you three key things:
1. Play better defense.
The Utes slacked off a bit against New Mexico and allowed the Lobos to shoot 57 percent from 3-point range, including three key shots down the stretch. The Utes held TCU’s top shooter, Henry Salter, in check (6 points) in Salt Lake and must do it again in front of his home crowd.
2. Crash the offensive boards.
Last time the Utes and Frogs met, the Frogs won the rebound battle 36-29 and had 13 offensive boards. If the Utes allow a bunch of second shots, as they did against UNM Saturday (10 offensive boards), it could be a long night.
3. Make free throws in the clutch.
It may be hard to believe that Utah ranks 18th in the nation in free throw shooting at 75.3 percent. That’s because the Utes always seem to miss their free throws at key times this season. At BYU last week, they missed just one of 10, but it came with 3:18 left and the Utes trying to cut the margin to three. Against New Mexico Saturday, the Utes missed a pair of free throws between the 5:19 and 6:25 marks, which helped the Lobos to catch up.
I believe the Utes have a good chance of winning tonight, but they can’t rely just on their outside shooting, which has been up and down this year. If they can play defense, crash the boards and hit the free throws when it counts, they should come away with a victory.